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02/23/2012 - Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pau Gasol had 24 points and nine rebounds on Wednesday night, as the Lakers escaped with a 96-91 win over the Mavericks.
With the narrow victory, the Lakers improved to 2-0 this season against Dallas, the team which swept them out of last year's Western Conference semifinals.
The Mavericks trailed 93-86 with a minute to play and pulled within two, 93-91, behind six straight missed free throws from the Lakers, a three- pointer from Jason Terry and a Dirk Nowitzki jumper.
The sixth missed free throw came from Gasol with 19 seconds left, but Matt Barnes grabbed the offensive rebound and hit a pair from the line to make it 95-91.
Derek Fisher then made 1-of-2 foul shots between a pair of Terry missed three-pointers to seal the Lakers' fifth win in six games. They face Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City on Thursday.
Nowitzki scored 25 points to pace the Mavericks, who had won seven of eight coming in. Vince Carter added 20 points and Terry had 16. Former Laker Lamar Odom did not play due to family reasons.
"This was a nail biter tonight," said Mavericks forward Shawn Marion. "I think we had our chances to gain a lead and keep it, but we had a few mishaps there in the fourth. They still gave us a chance there, but we weren't able to pull it out."
Fisher, who made the game-winning three-pointer in the teams' previous meeting this season, played a pivotal role in a 9-0 Lakers run which turned a two- point deficit into an 89-82 fourth-quarter lead.
After two free throws apiece from Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum, Fisher knocked down a three-pointer, then made a running floater in the paint to mark the largest advantage of the second half for either team.
A baseline jumper from Terry and a 16-footer from Nowitzki made it 89-86 but Bryant answered with successful lob passes on each of the Lakers' next two touches.
The first went to Gasol, who finished with a second effort and the second saw Bynum finish with a dunk for a 93-86 lead with 1:05 to play.
"I thought our guys did a nice job of executing down the stretch," said Lakers coach Mike Brown. "I feel like offensively we're getting a little better, but right now our end of game execution isn't quite where I want."
Gasol got off to a hot start scoring 12 first-quarter points en route to a 25-21 advantage.
The margin increased to 14 midway through the second, as Gasol's dunk made it 42-28. The Mavericks, though, closed the quarter on a 20-6 run to tie it 48.
Nowitzki scored Dallas' final six points before the break, making a pair of foul shots, a shot step-back jumper and a game-tying 22-footer with seven seconds to play.
Neither team led by more than four points in the third and it was knotted at 72 entering the fourth.
Game Notes
Bynum finished with 19 points and 14 rebounds while Bryant and Fisher both had 15...The teams previously met on January 16. Fisher knocked down a three- pointer with 3.1 seconds remaining, lifting the Lakers to a 73-70 victory over the Mavericks in that one...Los Angeles is now 6-11 on the road this season while Dallas fell to 14-3 as the host.
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even after
<< Ellis' last-second shot lifts Warriors over Suns; Curry injures foot
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Monta Ellis scored 26 points and made the game-
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Ellis' fadeaway jumper with Grant Hill in his face snap
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Monterrey, Mexico (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-seeded Italian Roberta Vinci was a
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Paul leads Clippers past Nuggets >>
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Blake Griffi
San Diego State sneaks past Wyoming in OT >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jamaal Franklin scored the first five points
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Garrett Green came o
Stanford two shots clear in Singapore >>
Singapore (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Angela Stanford made a couple of late birdies to
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Let's be Frank: Don't overlook Discreet Dancer this weekend >>
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about another of Pl
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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